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2026 World Cup Semifinal Pool Forecast (Reach Semifinal, all 48 teams)

Generated: 2026-06-11T13:15:00Z | Model: pure-Elo Monte Carlo + bounded evidence adjustment | Chinese original: report.md

Market-blind statement: This forecast is fully independent of any betting odds or prediction markets — no market data of any kind was fetched or consulted. Probabilities come solely from the Elo/Monte-Carlo statistical model plus capped, evidence-based adjustments.

1. Most likely final four

By adjusted probability, the most likely final four are Spain (64.8%), Argentina (58.3%), France (51.5%) and England (36.0%) — conveniently, the four sit in four different quarters of the official bracket, making this the most structurally compatible set.

One-sentence view: The three Elo 2000+ sides (Spain, Argentina, France) plus a fully fit England with the cleanest projected path make up the most likely final four; Brazil, despite ranking 5th on Elo, are squeezed to about 22% by injuries and by sharing a quarter with England and Mexico.

2. Full 48-team probability table (descending)

Each probability is the marginal probability of reaching the semifinals (last 4); the 48 values sum to 4. Reasons are purely footballing: Elo / group situation / knockout path ("quarter" = one of the four branches of the official bracket, each worth one semifinal slot).

#TeamMC baselineAdjustedOne-line reason (Elo / group / path)
1Spain66.0%64.8%Elo 2157, world No. 1; overwhelming model favourite to win Group H (86%); softest quarter (Türkiye/Belgium/Croatia tier at worst); Yamal's hamstring mainly threatens early group games — small markdown
2Argentina57.0%58.3%Elo 2115, No. 2; second-strongest side in Group J is only Austria (1830); Messi fit, no squad crisis; unlikely to meet a top side before a projected QF vs the Group K winner
3France50.4%51.5%Elo 2063, No. 3; full-strength squad led by Mbappé; the catch is a quarter shared with the Netherlands and the Group E winner (Germany/Ecuador)
4England34.1%36.0%Elo 2024, No. 4; clean bill of health in the Florida camp (only Saka's Achilles needs managing); penalised by sharing a quarter with Brazil and Mexico — one semifinal slot among three
5Brazil24.0%22.1%Elo 1991, No. 5, but Rodrygo (ACL), Estêvão and Wesley out, Neymar a calf doubt; projected R32 vs Japan and same quarter as England
6Colombia17.7%19.0%Elo 1982, No. 7; James in form, fully fit squad while direct Group K rival Portugal carry knocks; but either K finish funnels into Argentina's or Spain's quarter
7Portugal19.0%17.9%Elo 1989, No. 6; Ronaldo only just back from a ~3-month thigh injury (missed both June friendlies), Dias/Leão/Semedo all carrying issues; the K top-spot race decides whether they hit Argentina or Spain
8Netherlands17.5%16.4%Elo 1948, No. 8; Simons and Schouten (ACL) out, J. Timber withdrawn, keeper Verbruggen a doubt for the opener; share a quarter with France and the Group E winner
9Ecuador14.8%15.1%Elo 1938, No. 9; Caicedo leads a fully fit squad; Group E is a coin-flip with Germany — winners get France's quarter, runners-up get the England/Brazil quarter; both roads are hard
10Germany13.8%13.4%Elo 1932, No. 10; Musiala back after a 196-day fibula layoff (sharpness in question), Neuer's calf expected ready for the opener; same path fork as Ecuador
11Norway10.7%10.4%Elo 1914, No. 11; Haaland red-hot (16 qualifying goals) but Ødegaard had 5+ injury layoffs this season; likely Group I runners-up into a brutal bottom-half path
12Japan10.1%9.5%Elo 1906, No. 14; Mitoma and Minamino miss the tournament; finishing second in F means Brazil already in the R32
13Croatia8.5%8.7%Elo 1912, No. 12; steady qualifiers; as L runners-up they'd face the K runner-up in the R32, then Spain's quarter
14Switzerland8.4%8.6%Elo 1891, No. 17; Xhaka/Akanji/Kobel core intact; Group B is a coin-flip with Canada — winning it leads to Argentina's quarter, second place to France's; ceiling capped either way
15Türkiye8.1%8.3%Elo 1911, No. 13; Güler/Yıldız lead an injury-free list; near-even favourite to win Group D, but the winner's quarter contains Spain
16Mexico7.0%7.1%Elo 1875, No. 18, plus three home altitude group games (+100 Elo in the model); ~80% to win Group A, but the likely R16 is England
17Belgium7.5%7.1%Elo 1894, No. 15; Lukaku barely played all season, De Bruyne just over an eye injury, Courtois coming off an injury-hit year; winning Group G leads into Spain's quarter
18Uruguay5.9%6.0%Elo 1892, No. 16; winless in their last four friendlies; finishing second in H means Argentina straight away in the R32
19Senegal4.3%4.4%Elo 1860, No. 21, Africa's highest; must squeeze out of Group I past France and Norway, and the path after is no softer
20Morocco2.9%2.7%Elo 1827, No. 24; Aguerd and Ezzalzouli withdrew injured; must take points off Brazil in C, and the runner-up road starts with the Netherlands
21Paraguay2.3%2.3%Elo 1834, No. 22; solid defensively; locked in a Group D scrap with Türkiye and the USA, and both exit routes run into an Elo 2000+ side
22Canada2.1%1.9%Elo 1788, No. 25, plus host bonus, but Davies has a hamstring injury, Bombito is out and David is badly out of form; even winning B leads to Argentina's quarter
23Austria1.6%1.7%Elo 1830, No. 23; playmaker Baumgartner misses the whole tournament; near-certain J runners-up, which likely means Spain in the R32
24Scotland1.2%1.3%Elo 1782, No. 26; full squad; fighting Morocco for second in C, then most likely the Netherlands first up
25IR Iran1.0%1.0%Elo 1772, No. 29; settled, fully prepared squad; advancing as G runners-up leads into Argentina's quarter
26South Korea1.0%1.0%Elo 1758, No. 33; Son's fourth World Cup; A runners-up get the B runner-up in the R32 — one of the few winnable knockout draws — but France's quarter follows
27Czechia0.7%0.7%Elo 1740, No. 35; Schick fit again, Hložek back; racing South Korea for second in A, with the final-round trip to the Azteca a drag
28Australia0.6%0.7%Elo 1777, No. 28; most likely fighting for a third-place berth out of D; surviving the R32 would already be overachieving
29Algeria0.5%0.5%Elo 1772, No. 29; racing Austria for second in J, and the prize is probably Spain in the R32
30United States0.4%0.4%Elo 1726, No. 39, with three home group games, but key midfielder Cardoso and striker Agyemang are out; under 20% to even win Group D
31Panama0.3%0.3%Elo 1730, No. 38; finishing above Croatia for second in L is already a long shot
32Sweden0.2%0.2%Elo 1712, No. 43; the Netherlands and Japan are a tier above in F — getting out is the hard part
33Egypt0.2%0.2%Elo 1696, No. 48; Salah and Marmoush give a front line above their ranking, but the squad lacks depth; a strong quarter awaits any G qualifier
34Ivory Coast0.2%0.2%Elo 1695, No. 49; face two top-10 sides (Germany, Ecuador) in Group E
35Uzbekistan0.1%0.2%Elo 1714, No. 42, debutants; pinned down by two top-7 Elo sides in Group K
36Jordan<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1680, No. 52, debutants; Group J contains Argentina
37Bosnia-Herzegovina<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1595, No. 65; must get past both Switzerland and Canada in B
38DR Congo<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1652, No. 55; suppressed by two top-7 sides in K
39Tunisia<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1628, No. 58; a clear two-tier Group F — advancing would itself be an upset
40Cape Verde<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1578, No. 68, first-ever World Cup; Spain and Uruguay block Group H
41Saudi Arabia<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1576, No. 69; equally squeezed by Spain and Uruguay in H
42New Zealand<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1562, No. 72; getting out of G would already be the story
43Iraq<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1607, No. 63; France, Norway and Senegal stand in the way in I
44South Africa<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1517, No. 80, winless in 2026; 220+ Elo points behind everyone in A
45Haiti<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1548, No. 73; Brazil, Morocco and Scotland fill Group C
46Ghana<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1510, No. 81; England and Croatia headline Group L
47Qatar<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1421, No. 96; every Group B opponent is 170+ Elo points stronger
48Curaçao<0.1%<0.1%Elo 1434, No. 91, debutants; two top-10 sides in Group E

(The 48 adjusted values sum to 4.000; exact values for the "<0.1%" entries are in prediction.json.)

3. Bracket-correlation caveat (important)

These are marginal probabilities and the underlying events are strongly correlated — do not multiply or add rows to estimate combination probabilities. The official bracket ties the 48 teams' fates together inside four quarters, where strong teams in the same quarter compete for a single semifinal slot:

  • England / Brazil / Mexico project into the same quarter — their marginals sum to ~65%, yet at most one of them can reach the last four through it.
  • France / the Netherlands / the Group E winner (Germany or Ecuador) share another quarter; again at most one advances.
  • Spain's quarter collects Türkiye, Belgium, Croatia and the Group K runner-up — all of their semifinal chances are suppressed by Spain, and all would jump sharply if Spain were upset early (negative correlation).
  • Group K (Portugal / Colombia): the winner lands in Argentina's quarter, the runner-up in Spain's — both roads lead through a giant, which is exactly why two top-7 Elo sides sit below 20% here.
  • Spain and France occupy different quarters of the same half (projected to meet in the semifinal itself), so "both reach the last four" is a compatible event; "Brazil and England both reach it" is nearly incompatible unless group standings break from expectation.

4. Definition

"Reach the semifinals" = win the quarterfinal and advance to the semifinal (be one of the last 4 teams). Winning the semifinal is not required. Each team gets one probability in [0, 1]; the 48 probabilities sum to ≈ 4 (exactly four teams reach the semifinals).

5. Method

  1. Statistical baseline: 100,000 full-tournament Monte Carlo simulations (seed 20260611), purely Elo-driven with no market input of any kind; Elo from the eloratings.net snapshot of 2026-06-11. Match goals are independent Poissons with λ = 2.6 × the Elo logistic expectancy (the 10^(Elo/400) win expectancy splits a 2.6-goal baseline). Hosts Mexico, the USA and Canada get +100 Elo in group games only (knockout venues vary, so no bonus there). Group ranking: points → goal difference → goals scored → head-to-head mini-table among fully tied teams → random draw; the 8 best third-placed teams are ranked by points/GD/goals/random and assigned to FIFA's allowed R32 slots via deterministic Kuhn bipartite matching (same-group rematches impossible by construction). Knockout matches are 90-minute Poisson simulations whose draw mass is split by a Bernoulli draw proportional to Elo expectancy (a stand-in for extra time and penalties). The knockout tree is the official 2026 bracket (matches 73–104).
  2. Bounded adjustment (≤ ±20% relative per team; largest actually used ±10%, all evidence-cited): Spain ×0.96 (Yamal hamstring, Fermín out — mostly an early-group issue); England ×1.03 (clean bill of health in camp); Brazil ×0.90 (Rodrygo ACL, Estêvão/Wesley out, Neymar calf doubt); Portugal ×0.92 (Ronaldo back from a 3-month layoff, Dias/Leão/Semedo knocks); Colombia ×1.05 (fully fit while the chief rival is not); Netherlands ×0.92 (Simons/Schouten out, keeper doubt); Germany ×0.95 (Musiala sharpness, Neuer calf); Japan ×0.92 (Mitoma/Minamino out); Belgium ×0.92 (Lukaku/De Bruyne/Courtois); Norway ×0.95 (Ødegaard's injury record); Canada ×0.90 (Davies/Bombito/David); Morocco ×0.92 (Aguerd/Ezzalzouli withdrawn). After adjusting, all 48 values were renormalized to sum to 4 (scale factor 1.0233), and the monotonicity chain p_champion ≤ p_sf ≤ p_qf was verified for every team.
  3. Limitations: Elo carries no squad or tactical detail; injury adjustments are coarse multipliers; the host bonus is a flat +100 with no venue/altitude distinction; tie-breaking and third-place allocation approximate FIFA's full rules. This forecast is 100% independent of any betting or prediction-market data.

Sources

  1. eloratings.net World Football Elo (snapshot 2026-06-11, ../../elo-table.json): https://www.eloratings.net/
  2. Wikipedia: 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage, official bracket structure (accessed 2026-06-11): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage
  3. ESPN: 2026 World Cup injuries tracker (Rodrygo/Neymar etc., accessed 2026-06-11): https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48572979/2026-fifa-world-cup-injuries-tracker-which-stars-miss-latest-info
  4. ESPN: Spain squad confirmed, Yamal injury (2026-05-25): https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48870392/spain-world-cup-2026-squad-confirmed-lamine-yamal-stars-no-real-madrid-players
  5. Sky Sports: England's Florida training camp report (Bellingham/Kane fitness, 2026-06): https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13552984/jude-bellingham-over-morgan-rogers-at-no-10-what-weve-learned-from-englands-world-cup-training-camp-in-florida
  6. Sports Mole: England injury boost, four players join camp (2026-06): https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/england/world-cup-2026/news/england-injury-boost-four-players-join-wc-camp-as-tuchels-lineup-questioned_598790.html
  7. Plataforma Media: Ronaldo sidelined with thigh muscle injury (2026-03-25): https://www.plataformamedia.com/en/2026/03/25/ronaldo-portugal-muscle-injury-world-cup-2026/
  8. FIFA: Portugal squad named, Ronaldo's sixth World Cup (2026-05): https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/cristiano-ronaldo-roberto-martinez-portugal-squad-announcement
  9. ESPN: Colombia squad (James/Díaz lead, 2026-05-25): https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48873914/james-rodriguez-luis-diaz-colombia-world-cup-squad
  10. FIFA: Netherlands call up Geertruida, J. Timber withdraws (2026-06-11): https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/netherlands-call-up-geertruida-jurrien-timber
  11. Al Jazeera: Mitoma misses Japan's squad with hamstring injury (2026-05-15): https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/5/15/mitoma-fails-to-make-japans-2026-world-cup-squad-due-to-hamstring-injury
  12. Al Jazeera: Germany team preview (Musiala return, Neuer calf, 2026-05-31): https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/5/31/germany-world-cup-2026-team-preview-players-to-watch-group-and-squad-list
  13. FotMob: De Bruyne, Lukaku named in Belgium squad despite injuries (2026-05-15): https://www.fotmob.com/news/18d3fh2himo601nk0xh84p4fky-de-bruyne-lukaku-named-belgium-world-cup-squad-despite-injuries
  14. Al Jazeera: Norway preview (Haaland/Ødegaard, 2026-05-26): https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/5/26/norway-world-cup-2026-preview-players-to-watch-group-matches-squad-list
  15. Fox Sports: Davies named to Canada squad despite hamstring injury (2026-06): https://www.foxsports.com/stories/soccer/alphonso-davies-named-to-canadas-world-cup-squad-despite-hamstring-injury
  16. GhanaSoccernet: Morocco lose Aguerd and Ezzalzouli to injury (2026-06-11): https://ghanasoccernet.com/2026-world-cup-morocco-suffer-double-injury-blow-as-nayef-aguerd-and-abde-ezzalzouli-withdraw-from-squad
  17. FourFourTwo: Ecuador final squad (Caicedo leads, accessed 2026-06): https://www.fourfourtwo.com/team/ecuador-world-cup-2026-squad
  18. Al Jazeera: Argentina preview (Messi fit again, 2026-06-10): https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/6/10/argentina-world-cup-2026-preview-players-to-watch-group-matches-squad

Disclaimer

This report provides probability estimates and research analysis based on public data. It is not financial, investment, or betting advice. All forecasts are probabilities, not certainties; past performance does not guarantee future results. Prediction markets and sports betting are restricted or illegal in many jurisdictions; check your local laws. 18+. We do not accept or facilitate any wagers.