World Cup

The complete run from group qualification to the final: every knockout node takes the most likely result with its per-tie win probability, lines running all the way to the final.

87 public forecasts · no market prices consulted · publicly Brier-scored · forecast time 2026-06-11 13:15 UTC

Format: the top two in every group advance to the round of 32, joined by the 8 best third-placed teams across the 12 groups — so each group sends 2 or 3 teams through.

Group qualification · advance %

Group A

1🇲🇽Mexico99%

2🇰🇷South Korea82%

3🇨🇿Czechia78%

4🇿🇦South AfricaOUT11%

Group B

1🇨🇭Switzerland99%

2🇨🇦Canada98%

3🇧🇦Bosnia & HerzegovinaOUT55%

4🇶🇦QatarOUT9%

Group C

1🇧🇷Brazil99%

2🇲🇦Morocco87%

3🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland78%

4🇭🇹HaitiOUT9%

Group D

1🇹🇷Türkiye89%

2🇵🇾Paraguay71%

3🇺🇸USA68%

4🇦🇺AustraliaOUT49%

Group E

1🇪🇨Ecuador98%

2🇩🇪Germany98%

3🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireOUT68%

4🇨🇼CuraçaoOUT5%

Group F

1🇳🇱Netherlands97%

2🇯🇵Japan95%

3🇸🇪Sweden51%

4🇹🇳TunisiaOUT22%

Group G

1🇧🇪Belgium98%

2🇮🇷Iran86%

3🇪🇬EgyptOUT67%

4🇳🇿New ZealandOUT20%

Group H

1🇪🇸Spain100%

2🇺🇾Uruguay96%

3🇨🇻Cape VerdeOUT27%

4🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaOUT26%

Group I

1🇫🇷France99%

2🇳🇴Norway89%

3🇸🇳Senegal79%

4🇮🇶IraqOUT8%

Group J

1🇦🇷Argentina100%

2🇦🇹Austria77%

3🇩🇿Algeria59%

4🇯🇴JordanOUT26%

Group K

1🇵🇹Portugal98%

2🇨🇴Colombia97%

3🇺🇿Uzbekistan42%

4🇨🇩DR CongoOUT22%

Group L

1🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England99%

2🇭🇷Croatia96%

3🇵🇦Panama65%

4🇬🇭GhanaOUT7%

Round of 32

🇪🇨Ecuador76%

🇨🇿Czechia24%

🇫🇷France87%

🇺🇸USA13%

🇰🇷South Korea46%

🇨🇦Canada54%

🇳🇱Netherlands67%

🇲🇦Morocco33%

🇨🇴Colombia60%

🇭🇷Croatia40%

🇪🇸Spain87%

🇦🇹Austria13%

🇹🇷Türkiye76%

🇸🇪Sweden24%

🇧🇪Belgium55%

🇸🇳Senegal45%

🇧🇷Brazil62%

🇯🇵Japan38%

🇩🇪Germany53%

🇳🇴Norway47%

🇲🇽Mexico63%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland37%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England86%

🇺🇿Uzbekistan14%

🇦🇷Argentina78%

🇺🇾Uruguay22%

🇵🇾Paraguay59%

🇮🇷Iran41%

🇨🇭Switzerland67%

🇩🇿Algeria34%

🇵🇹Portugal82%

🇵🇦Panama18%

Round of 16

🇪🇨Ecuador33%

🇫🇷France67%

🇨🇦Canada29%

🇳🇱Netherlands72%

🇨🇴Colombia27%

🇪🇸Spain73%

🇹🇷Türkiye52%

🇧🇪Belgium48%

🇧🇷Brazil58%

🇩🇪Germany42%

🇲🇽Mexico30%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England70%

🇦🇷Argentina83%

🇵🇾Paraguay17%

🇨🇭Switzerland36%

🇵🇹Portugal64%

Quarterfinals

🇫🇷France66%

🇳🇱Netherlands34%

🇪🇸Spain81%

🇹🇷Türkiye19%

🇧🇷Brazil45%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England55%

🇦🇷Argentina67%

🇵🇹Portugal33%

Semifinals

🇫🇷France37%

🇪🇸Spain63%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England37%

🇦🇷Argentina63%

Final · July 19

🇪🇸Spain56%

🇦🇷Argentina44%

🇪🇸

Predicted champion · Spain

Final win prob 56%

Marginal probabilities (per team, complementary to the single bracket path above)

Probability research from public data only. Not financial or betting advice. Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. 18+ where required.

World Cup

Marginal probabilities (per team, complementary to the single bracket path above)

Quarterfinal probabilities · 48 teams sum ≈ 8

Semifinal probabilities · 48 teams sum ≈ 4