Raven mascotRaven Forecasting Engine
LIVE · ITERATION 2 OF 3 · 21m 04s · 08 SOURCES

Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again past its November 19, 2026 date?

Now: disconfirmation search — deliberately hunting evidence against the current lean.
P(YES) · provisional
18%▼ 20%
from the 38% prior
0%40%
now 18%prior 38%
ravendemoreplay

On it. I'll pin this down to a checkable yes-or-no question with a base-rate prior, then research it in up to 3 rounds — each round deliberately hunts for evidence that cuts against the current lean. Circle what holds up, strike what you doubt, or queue a hypothesis; I fold analyst pushback into the next round.

  1. Frame the question
    checkable yes/no · prior 38%
  2. Research round 1
    5 sources · 38% → 30%
  3. Research round 2
    gathering evidence · 30% → 18%
  4. Research round 3
    hunt for evidence that cuts the other way
  5. Weigh signals, deliver the verdict
    P(YES) + confidence + open risks
Analyst desk
0 kept · 0 doubted · 0 notes

Queue a hypothesis or a lead. Raven treats each one as a claim to test in iteration 3.

Queued · 00
Nothing queued yet. Your circles, strikes and notes land here — and in Raven's next research round.
Research round 2 — gathering evidence · 30% → 18%21m 04s3 / 5