Raven Forecasting EngineRaven Forecasting Engine
Ask a hard yes-or-no question about the future. Raven frames it precisely, researches it in adversarial rounds, and returns a probability — with every source that moved it laid out in reading order.
Works best with a deadline and a checkable outcome — try
Latest dossier
7%
P(YES)
Will the GTA 6 launch be postponed again past its November 19, 2026 date?
Very unlikely — a third delay would be a real plot twist at this point.
13 sources33m 35sHigh confidenceresolves 2026-11-19
01 · FRAME
The question is pinned down
Normalized into something checkable — exact date, exact resolution criteria — and given an honest base-rate prior.
02 · RESEARCH
Adversarial rounds
Gather evidence, weigh its credibility and value, then hunt for whatever would prove the current lean wrong. You can push back mid-run.
03 · VERDICT
A number you can audit
One probability with its confidence band — and every source that moved it, in reading order, line by line.